By Jorge Casuso

August 26, 2024 -- A potential spoiler, an incumbent and two political establishment challengers are at the top of the November ballot in the race for four City Council seats.

The ballot order -- which can give candidates at the top a slight advantage in a tight race -- was determined on August 15 by the Secretary of State using a random drawing of the letters of the alphabet.

Rent Board Chair Ericka Lesley, who entered the race after failing to win the backing of Santa Monica's political establishment, will top the ballot, followed by incumbent Oscar de la Torre, a member of the Change faction's slim Council majority.

He will be followed by Pier Board Chair Dan Hall and Planning Commissioner Ellis Raskin, who are part of the establishment slate backed by Santa Monicans for Renters' Rights (SMRR) and the Democratic Club.

While the ballot order can be a factor with a long list of candidates, that won't be the case this year, when the field shrank in the hotly contested Council race from 21 to 10.

"It won't have that much of an effect, especially when there isn't a long list of candidates," said former Mayor Dennis Zane, the co-chair of Santa Monicans for Renters' Rights (SMRR).

Zane, who ran the two winning campaigns for former mayor Sue Himmelrich, believes endorsements and money far outweigh ballot order.

Longtime political consultant Sharon Gilpin agrees, noting that several studies have shown that placing at the top of the ballot gives a candidate a 3 to 5 percent advantage.

Much more "depends on name ID and campaigning," Gilpin said. "So there is a slight advantage but perhaps less than 5 percent" when the list of candidates is short.

Still, placing at the top of the ballot could enhance Lesley's potential to siphon votes from the establishment slate, whose two other candidates -- College Trustee Barry Snell and Natalya Zernitskaya -- will appear at the bottom of the ballot.

Establishment leaders, however, don't expect a repeat of 2022, when SMRR backed Raskin and the Dem Club endorsed Zernitskaya, splitting the vote and paving the way for Councilmember Lana Negrete to retain her seat.

This year, Lesley's candidacy, "won't make much of a difference," Zane said. "There's no way it will be like last time, unless she has $100,000 to spend."

On this year's ballot, Mayor Phil Brock, Vivian Roknian and John Putnam, two small business owners backed by Santa Monicans United (SMU) command the middle of the ballot.

The anti-establishment slate, which also includes de la Torre, will count on a hefty warchest being amassed by SMU, which has the backing of the local business community.

The final candidate, "Guitar Guy" Wade Kelly, a Promenade street musician, will appear below Brock.

In the race for three School Board seats, challenger Christine Falaguerra, an educator and literacy specialist, will top the ballot, followed by incumbents Maria Leon-Vazquez, John Kean and Jennifer Smith.

There will be no College Board or Rent Control races this election year due to a lack of candidates.

The LA County Registrar will begin mailing Vote by Mail ballots to voters on October 7. The last day to register to vote is October 21. Election Day is November 5.