By Jorge Casuso

July 9, 2025 -- A report by the RAND Corporation released last week raises serious questions about the accuracy of the latest homeless counts conducted by the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority (LAHSA), including those in Santa Monica.

The report released July 1 found that the annual Point-in-Time (PIT) counts taken by RAND last year in Venice, Hollywood and LA Skid Row differed widely from those taken by LAHSA after the agency took over the annual census from local jurisdictions.

According to the report, LAHSA's estimates are systematically 25 to 60 percent lower than those conducted by RAND, "potentially affecting the interpretation" of both the County's 2024 count and future results.

Researchers found that the differences in Venice were "particularly striking," with LAHSA finding "just 173 persons and dwellings" compared to 554 identified by RAND.

RAND's findings call into question the results of LAHSA's 2024 count that "suggested a roughly 10-percent year-on-year total decline in unsheltered homelessness across the City of Los Angeles."

"(I)f the undercounts that we observed extend more broadly, the true change may have been (substantially) smaller, complicating appropriate policy decisions and future PIT interpretations," researchers wrote.

Last year's homeless count by the now defunct County agency was touted in regional, as well as national headlines, that highlighted the slight drop in the County's homeless population -- from 75,518 in 2023 to 75,312 last year.

The sudden leveling off came after the County's homeless population had surged by more than 40 percent over the previous five years.

The trend was reflected in Santa Monica's count last year, which saw a 6 percent drop from 826 homeless individuals counted in 2023 to 774 last year, when the County took over the census from the City.

The Westside, including Santa Monica, saw an even bigger drop from 6,669 individuals counted in 2023 to 5,383 last year, a 20 percent drop.

Santa Monica's 2024 homeless count was impacted by a sudden drop in community volunteers and technical glitches encountered after LASHA upgraded to new technology ("Few Volunteers, Tech Glitches Hamper Homeless Count," January 29, 2024).

During the two homeless counts run by LAHSA in January 2024 and February 2025, the agency used some 100 volunteers to cover the 226 linear miles of streets by car, down from some 300 volunteers when the City ran the previous counts.

The drawbacks heightened skepticism about the accuracy of the results and could taint the eagerly awaited results of this year's count, which helps the City set homeless policies and seek funding and resources from the County.

RAND's report found that "the number of unhoused residents dropped significantly from the previous year, but those who remain may be increasingly difficult to move into housing," according to a press release from the Santa Monica-based think tank.

"The study of unsheltered people in Hollywood, Skid Row, and Venice during 2024 found a drop of 15 percent from the prior year, likely driven by increased throughput to both interim and permanent housing programs," the release said.

"However, researchers found that 'rough sleeping' (living literally unsheltered, without a tent, makeshift shelter, or vehicle) showed little change," according to the release.

"This form of unsheltered homelessness is now the most common type in the study areas, representing about 40 percent of the total unsheltered population."

Unlike the County's annual counts conducted by volunteers over a four-hour period on a single night, RAND's 2024 count was by the research organization's professional survey staff every two months.

In addition, researchers surveyed 463 unsheltered individuals across the three neighborhoods from July to October.

According to RAND researchers, "the overall decline in unsheltered homelessness has been driven mainly by a reduction in tents and makeshift structures.

"This leaves a more transient, mobile, and dynamic population. The fraction of unhoused people surveyed in Hollywood and Venice who reported living with literally no shelter reached record levels, according to the press release.

“As more people live totally exposed to the elements, their needs will rise,” said Sarah B. Hunter, coauthor of the study and director of the RAND Center on Housing and Homelessness.

For the study, “Annual Trends Among the Unsheltered in Three Los Angeles Neighborhoods: The Los Angeles Longitudinal Enumeration and Demographic (LA LEADS) 2024 Annual Report,” click here.