District Releases Enrollment Numbers for Next Year

By Teresa Rochester

Almost a year after actual enrollments in district schools fell far short of projections, prompting a narrowly averted multi-million dollar shortfall, district officials released the anticipated enrollment for the 2001/2002 school year to the Board of Education Thursday night.

Officials estimate that enrollment will decline to 12,481 next year, a drop of only 64 pupils. The district will see a decrease in the number of students who live in Santa Monica and Malibu, according to the projections. The numbers also show a lower enrollment of resident kindergartners next year.

"We're at least seeing a leveling off. We're not seeing a loss of resident students," said Art Cohen, assistant superintendent for fiscal and business services. He added that the district would bring in 19 permit students to bring enrollment to its recommended maximum of 12,500.

Last year, after actual enrollment fell 400 students short of projections, the Board of Education directed district staff to increase enrollment to 12,500 students in order to generate much needed money from the state, which pays the district nearly $5,000 per student.

On Thursday, however, board members, urged staff to watch where permit students are placed, so as not to overburden grade levels with high enrollment. Board member Julia Brownley said she was particularly concerned that typically large class sizes at Santa Monica High School being could be further increased.

But enrollment at the high school - particularly the size of the incoming 9th grade class - is the most difficult to estimate because anticipated students may opt to go to private schools, Supt. Neil Schmidt told the board. He added that the district would rather err on the side of having a "few more students than 400 less."

Over the past 11 years, the average projections have been within 1.65 percent of the actual enrollment taken each October, according to a district report. The report also stated that more than 91 percent of the time over the last 10 years projections were 97 percent or better.