RAND's Santa Monica Snapshot Part II: Social Welfare, Crime and Employment Trends

By Jorge Casuso

White-collar jobs are abundant, serious crime is down and even the poor seem to have jobs in Santa Monica.

Those are among the encouraging findings reported by RAND researcher Lee Mizell in a community profile prepared for the city's Human Services Division that paints a portrait of the city of 90,000 at the turn of a new millennium.

The report uses the latest available data from a variety of sources, including 1990 Census updates and information from the city, county, school district, police department, Rent Control Board and the United Way.

The report, which will be used by city officials to help guide general policy decisions, found that:

· High education levels and an abundance of local jobs are keeping the civilian unemployment rate consistently lower than that of the county, state or nation in both 1990 and 1998. The unemployment rate in Santa Monica was 4.3 percent in 1998, compared to 5.9 percent for the state.

The number of jobs in the city is projected to grow from 75,000 in 1990 to 84,000 by
2000. The majority of Santa Monica residents were employed in
management/professional (47 percent), technical (32 percent) and sales positions (10
percent).

· Six percent of Santa Monicans use public assistance, which refers to those benefiting from CalWorks, MediCal, General Relief, Food Stamps or In-Home Support Services. According to the United Way, 5,415 Santa Monica residents received public assistance. Of those, the majority (45 percent) were concentrated in the area with the highest concentration of minorities.

Residents on welfare represent less than half of those below the poverty rate, which comprise 14 percent of the population. "The discrepancy," according to the report, "may indicate the presence of a working poor population in the City."

· The number of welfare recipients has declined in Santa Monica, mirroring state and national trends. Since June 1998 (two months after welfare reform kicked in), the number of welfare recipients in Santa Monica declined by 12 percent. Currently, there are 1,252 CalWorks recipients in Santa.

"The characteristics of those who left welfare, whether or not they are currently employed and whether or not they are making a livable wage, are unknown," according to the report.

· The number of individuals in Santa Monica who are eligible for MediCal declined 12.25 percent since 1994. "The Legislative Analyst's Office of California indicates that a significant portion of the decline may be attributable to declining welfare caseloads," according to the report. The number of elderly and disabled on the Medical caseload is holding steady, according to the analyst's office.

· A much smaller percentage of students participates in the free or reduced lunch program in Santa Monica (26 percent) than in the county (61 percent) or the state (48 percent). The percentages range from 5.6 percent of students at Franklin elementary in the city's north side to 61 percent at John Muir in the city's south side.

· The percentage of teen births in the city is lower than it is countywide, according to 1996 data. Births to girls ages 15 to 19 accounted for 26 births in Santa Monica, or three percent of all births in the city in 1996, compared to 12 percent for the county.

· Serious crime has declined 55 percent to 4,884 crimes in 1999, according to Santa Monica Police. The incidence of rape dropped 52 percent and aggravated assault declined 65 percent. Robberies, burglaries, attempted burglaries, larcenies and auto theft are down 53 percent. The incidence of drug sales is down 88 percent, while prostitution and other sex offenses have declined 50 percent. The number of runaways booked has declined 57 percent.

· Juvenile crime also is on the decline, with arrests for robbery down 67 percent and aggravated assault down 21 percent. Vandalism has declined 44 percent and narcotics 45 percent. Total juvenile arrests are down 35 percent.

"This decline in juvenile crime is consistent with the 32 percent decline in gang-related crimes in West Los Angeles between August 1994 and August 1999, as well as with the national trend of declining juvenile crime," according to the report.

Stay tuned for Part III, "The Cost of Living," which will run later this week.