Poll Shows Dead Heat in Parcel Tax Options

By Jorge Casuso

Jan. 19 -- The School District parcel tax committee faces a tough call after a poll showed voters are equally likely to pass a tax that sets a $225 flat rate as they are one that sets a $60 tax plus 7 cents per square foot on buildings on the parcel.

That was the key finding of the poll of 402 Santa Monica and Malibu voters released Friday at a meeting of the Save Our Schools Committee, which is weighing three measures that would each raise $6.5 million a year for six years for the cash-strapped school district.

The poll seems to have winnowed the choices down to two. While 59 percent of those polled supported Measure P (the flat tax) and 56 percent supported Measure U (the $60 plus 7 cent tax), Measure R-- a $110 tax plus 5 cents per square foot -- garnered 51 percent support, almost certainly eliminating it from consideration. All three measures exempt owners who are 65 and older.

"Measures 'P' and 'Q' are the only measures with initial support/opposition levels that extrapolate to the necessary 67 percent/33 percent needed for eventual passage," read one of the key findings of the poll conducted between January 8 and 12 by Baselice and Associates Inc.

"'R" certainly doesn't seem to be in the same league," Mike Baselice, president of the Texas-based opinion-research firm, told the committee. As for the chances of passing one of the two other measures, Baselice said, "You're on the good side of likely."

The committee must now weigh the pluses and minus of the two highest scoring measures, one of which the School Board will likely put before voters in June to help bridge an $11 million budget gap in the next school year.

"I think you have to go beyond what the survey has and look at all the ramifications and go through the list and find out which one will absorb the most shock and generate the most support," Baselice told the committee. "You have to look at the coalitions you can build and the realities of each."

"A lot of data has to be analyzed," said Neil Carrey, the committee's chair. "We have to look at the strengths and weaknesses."

One of the major factors the committee must weigh is whether the business community is likely to oppose the per-square-foot-tax, which would have its biggest impact on large businesses such as hotels and large office complexes.

"We have to focus on the possible opposition to 'Q' in the business community," said Harley Frankel, the committee's co-chair. "There may be some organized opposition that may put some money into it."

The poll also asked how respondents voted on Prop EE, the $300 flat tax on the November ballot that fell short, winning 62 percent of the vote. Of those who responded, 60 percent said they had voted for the measure, while 30 percent said they opposed it and 10 percent were unsure, didn't recall or declined to answer.

Of those who said they opposed the measure, the reason most often given was economic. In addition, when respondents were presented with the tax ramifications of the three options, the approval rating for all the measures dropped.

"The results show the impact of focusing strictly on tax ramifications," the consultants wrote in their report. "Any campaign involving financing and tax dollars needs to focus on benefits, not costs."

The poll indicates that to succeed, a campaign must focus on the impacts of the budget crisis that has led Superintendent John Deasy to propose closing the schools down for two weeks to avoid laying off 62 teachers to bridge a current $3.5 million budget shortfall.

Respondents also seemed to more strongly favor the need for a parcel if they were told that the revenues are needed "to help preserve the existing core curriculum for all grade levels," "prevent the school district from dramatically increasing class sizes" and "prevent cuts in preschool programs for low and moderate income children."

When asked to state in their own words why they would vote in favor of the measures, most cited "quality of education," followed by "schools/kids need it" with only a small number citing "property values."

One of the advantages of the current proposals over the measure that failed in November is that they exempt property owners who are 65 or older, a provision that could make the major difference, since older voters tend to turn out at a higher rate that the general population.

Many older voters are concerned about making ends meet. "You throw a number at them that will change their lives, and they react negatively," Baselice said. "I think (the exemption) is a very key element to have."

Of the 402 voters polled, 57 percent owned their homes, 41 percent rented and 2 percent were unsure or declined to answer. Because the percentage of renters in the sample is lower than the actual percentage in the district, the weight of the 166 renters was increased to reflect 225 respondents.